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colonel1

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  1. Hi Ya'll, I think the answer has been nailed on the head already. With K-Q, on a rainbow flop J-10-2, a lot of players may be thinking ok I have an open ended straight draw (32%), plus 2 possible over cards to hit (add 27%). That makes 59% of hitting by the river. Just thinkng about your cards you may think you are the favorite. But this fails to take in the opponents cards. A lot of your opponents cards will discount yours if he/she has a big hand. I have said the opponent is a tight player, so lets see what the odds are against these hands AA-KK-QQ-JJ-1010-AK-AQ-AJ......... Your hand vs AA ......24% Your hand vs KK........30% Your hand vs QQ.......40% Your hand vs JJ.........26% Your hand vs 1010.....26% Your hand vs AK.........27% your hand vs AQ.........27% Your hands vs AJ........47% So assuming the player has one of these hands, you are never the favorite, and you are rarely getting a good price to call as the opponent has bet about 80% of the pot. If the stacks were bigger, say 10K you can incorporate implied odds, and now you may call for that reason alone. Even hands that may call a re-raise all-in from you, lets assume from loose players often will disount some of your drawing cards. For example. Your hand vs QJ.......40% Your hand vs J9........45% Your hand vs KJ........40% your hand vs 99 ........44% I would advise a fold in this spot. Cheers for now, Rob
  2. Hi Ya'll, Today I thought I'd pose a hypothetical hand, and garner some reactions. Blinds are 25/50, stacks are 3K. You raise 200 in late position with . BB re-raises to 550, and you call. The flop is BB leads out with 800 chip bet. What do you do now? Lets assume BB is a tight player. Post your suggestions, and I\'ll get back in a few days with some comments. Cheers, Rob
  3. Hi, I am funded by LPB, if you read my blog I am about even at the moment. I am free to play, any tournaments I wish. I usually range from $50-$20 entry tournaments, and play exclusively at Poker Stars. I've had some very near misses for some nice cashes, and I'm sure one is around the corner soon. Cheers, Rob
  4. Ok, So I minimum raise 1400 chips on the button. I standard 3x BB raise is usually on the cards, but I like to mix it up sometimes, give my opposition the chance to make a miss-step re-raise, as A-J is a big hand on the button with no previous raisers. My flop bet is probably a big mistake. With a flop of A-J-9 I bet 1400 into a pot of about 3500 chips. Once again I think I had it in my mind to give my opponent a chance to re-raise but under betting the flop, attempting to look weak. The turn is a 10 which doesn't look too threatening. But I cautiously check behind. The river brings a nothing card. If my opponent doesn't bet, I would value bet the river. But he leads out with a big river bet of about 5K. I cautiously call. My opponent turns over K-Q for the nut str8. I was probably my own worst enemy in this hand. But calling with just a gut-shot str8 draw by my opponent is still a bit dubious. Cheers, Rob
  5. Sorry, just to clarify I made a slight error in my blog which has now been corrected with regards to my opponents hand. I welcome criticism, please fell open to discuss different and/or better way's to play my hand of the week, that's the whole point. I am a little absent minded and make slight posting errors occasionally. I will be posting my answer in a day or so, Thanks Y'all
  6. Hi, my name is Robert Ginnane, and I'm sponsored by LPB to play tournament poker. Sorry for the delay, I actually enjoy posting these hands but have forgotten of late. You can check out my blog here https://www.latestpokerbonuses.com/poker-blog/colonel1/. I will be taking 1 hand from my tournament play each week, and ask you the question: What would you do? I briefly mentioned this hand in my blog, but here's what happened: Blinds are 350/700 antes are 85. I have 12,000 chips and we are not far off the money but not right on. My opponenet also has about 12,000 chips. I min-raise on the button with to 1400 chips BB calls. The flop is . I bet 1400, and BB calls. The turn is . BB checks, and I check also. The river is another I call a 4,500 chip river bet. What do you think of this hand? If you haven't read my blog, what do you suppose he/she has? Thanks Y'all Rob
  7. Hi Y'all, Sorry for the delay, but here's what I shall call poker hand of the Month as it's been that long since I've posted. I'm playing in a $30 Hold 'em tournament, the blinds are 100/200, and I have 5225 chip stack. I am the last to act on the button and I make the standard raise to 600 with , SB ponders a decision, then puts 2036 all in, and BB folds. So here I am put to a tough decision and have to do some maths on the run, to work out my pot odds. So, I have 600 in the pot and I have to call 1436 to win 4272. So I'm getting 2-1 on my money to make the call, if SB had 3000 or more chips to begin the hand, I would not be getting the right odds to call. But with only 2K I am right on the border. In most cases if you getting 2-1 on your money, unless there are other things to consider like proximity to the bubble, or your stack size, you usually must call with any 2 cards. Given my hand these are the hands I may be up against and the odds: vs (one over one under) odds - 40%/60% vs (2 in the middle) odds 43%/57% vs (over cards vs a pair) odds 48%/52% vs (one over card) odds 32%/68% vs (dominated hand) odds 29%/71% vs ( 2 under cards) odds 18%/82% So 5 out of 6 of these situations I am getting roughly 1-2 or better odds to call, only in 1 case am I making a bad call. If you have any thoughts or ideas, on why or why not to make this call please post, I look forward to more hands of the week in the future. I will post what hand I was up against later in the tread. Caio Y'all
  8. Hi Y'all, Inspired by Phil Ivey who seems to get the maximum value out of his hands, including value betting the river if he think she has the best hand, I value bet my lower fullhouse after my opponent checks the river. After my opponent re-raises me on the river all-in, I'm am put to a tough decision. Using most of my TIME-BANK I decide eventually to call thinking I am probably about 50/50 of getting this decision right. Unfortunately my opponent has employed a fairly advanced play of checking the nuts on the river. He turns over 10-7 with a higher fullhouse, and I am left ruing my decision, and also annoyed I can't find more hands of the week where I've made good plays!!!!! Til next week, c y'all later Rob
  9. Hi, Dirk I'll try put some more info into my hand of the week next time, I know you have to factor in a lot of variables with regards to past history, the proximity to the bubble, the other opponents stack etc... In this case I was reasonably deep in the money into a $10 tourney, the opponent had a similar stack, and hadn't stood out as overly aggressive or anything from memory. With regards to pot size, on the turn the pot was 17,700 this includes antes of 300. My 12K bet on turn is a feeler bet, and also to stop SB drawing cheaply. The river is the big problem. It is a reasonably advanced play to check raise the river, I was confounded. Needless to say I used most of my timebank on this one. Cheers Rob
  10. Hi, my name is Robert Ginnane, and I'm sponsored by LPB to play tournament poker. You can check out my blog here https://www.latestpokerbonuses.com/poker-blog/colonel1/. I will be taking 1 hand from my tournament play each week, and ask you the question: What would you do? The blinds are 3k/1.5K, I have a 95K stack. I'm in the BB with , There are two callers including SB, flop is , SB leads out with 3K bet, I flat call and the other caller folds. I immediately begin narrowing down my opponents hand range. He may have a flush draw, top pair, a straight draw like 34, 68, 46 etc. Or an out and out bluff. The turn is , This may seem like a bad card for us, but it can also be a good card, any straight or flush draw has missed, and any dirty bluffer has also missed, quite often is the best hand here. Given this I lead out with a 12K bet. SB calls. The river is . SB checks. I'm tempted to check, but I realize I may get a call with a value bet, if my opponent has a 2, or a medium overpair like 99. I bet 12K on river. SB re-raises all in 70K putting me potentially all-in. What would you do? What do you think my opponent has?
  11. Hi Ya'll, It's very tempting when near the bubble to just get your cards all in when in good position with good cards. But your aim in any tournament should be to win, and that means getting maximum value out of every possible hand you play. Noticing the BB being very aggressive, I decide to set a trap with my quite big hand of . Now after the BB turns over , I am happy that I have caught out the thief, but I could very easily have BB dominated. I would much rather the BB turn over a weak Ace A-7. But either way my trap has worked, unluckily not to my benefit this time. But it is always gratifying to make a nice play even when it doesn't work out for you.
  12. Yup dunno how I overlooked that, now edited. With regard to the bubble, I was about 150th with 130 making the money. Please feel free to discuss my play.
  13. Hi, my name is Robert Ginnane, and I\'m sponsored by LPB to play tournament poker. You can check out my blog here https://www.latestpokerbonuses.com/poker-blog/colonel1/. I will be taking 1 hand from my tournament play each week, and ask you the question: What would you do? This week I'll be showing why paying attention to the table is so important. You can get information on players in every hand dealt, not just the hands you are in. Make notes on the players as you go. Playing a $20 Hold\'em tourney I was nearing the bubble and got involved in this hand: With everyone limping to me in the SB, I have 17K and I sit with , The blinds are 300/600 with antes also. In any normal situation the correct thing to do here is raise the BB, or even go all-in to put pressure on the BB. But, I have noticed the BB being very aggressive with a big stack (75K). Making what looks like questionable all-in moves. Also, I remember the last time around the table i limped into his BB with J-10 and he popped his chips all-in. I decide to set a trap with my hand, which is the best hand 90% of the time, I\'m actually hoping he raises 3K and I can go over the top all-in, but noting his aggressive moves I\'m allready consigned to calling an all-in bet. BB obliges accordingly and goes all-in, I insta-call. BB turns over . The board rolls out Anyone have any thoughts on this hand?
  14. Hi y'all, Bit late in response this week, sorry about that. So with in my hand on a very tight table I decided I wanted some action and minimum raised from early position. Under most situations minimum raising is a bad idea, but my gut told me to do it, and I usually trust my gut. With 2 callers and a flop of , there are immediately a vast ammount of hands that can either beat me, or will call 2/3 pot raises on big draws. Think K-Q, J-10, 9-9, as the 3 hands that either of the 2 callers could easily have that beat me. Then hands that are behind, but have big drawing capabilities, A-J, A-10, with 2 clubs. K-J, K-10, Q-J, Q-10 a pair and a gutshot. And any hand with 2 clubs. Quite often with flops that have lots of draws I will check a big hand. Many times someone with a good drawing hand will, check-raise all in, putting me in a tough spot. When the hits the turn I\'m feeling pretty confident that my A-A is best and may have raised the BB after he lead out with 800, but I decide to call. The river is a meaningless card with regards to possible draws. And I lead out with a value bet of 1200. And rake in a pot of 7650 chips. BB turns over . So in most situations minimum raising is advised against, but in this case I probably got close to the maximum value out of my hand which is always the goal. Thanks y'all Rob Oh and sorry about changing the 2 last week, I had some people confused, lol. Just made an initial mistake in my post.
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